Anti-AI Bubble Portfolio

Grantham 2-sigma bubble rules × AI capex scorecard · stocks by industry · Monte Carlo by risk · v0.1 · 261012mo

Portfolio

Pick a risk appetite and drag the bubble sliders: allocation, ROI ranges and the stress test update live. Include or drop any stock and add your own note per line.

Risk appetite

Portfolio $ Bubble bursts within 12m Burst hit on AI-heavy names

12-month fan: portfolio value

Band = P10–P90 and P25–P75 of the blended scenarios; dashed purple = Pure-AI benchmark median.

ROI range by scenario

Bar = P10 to P90, tick = median. Burst = the AI bubble unwinds at a random month.

1Y outcome distribution (blended)

Share of simulated outcomes per 5% ROI bin. Purple line = Pure-AI benchmark.

Bubble-burst stress test

Median 1Y ROI if the bubble bursts (whisker = P10–P90). The anti-bubble test.

Risk vs return map

Volatility against expected 1Y ROI. Click a point to switch the risk appetite.

Allocation by industry category

Risk appetite comparison

Same model, same universe. Click a row to switch. Blended = scenario mix set by the sliders.

Recommended stocks by industry category

Anti-bubble score = 35% balance sheet + 30% (10 − valuation risk) + 25% (10 − AI exposure) + 10% growth. Weights shown for all three risk appetites; the highlighted column drives the charts. Untick a stock to drop it from every tier.

Passes selected risk screen only

In	Stock	Score	Growth	Val. risk	AI exp.	Bal. sheet	Rules	Low %	Mid %	High %	$	Price	Note

Add Stock Pick

Type a stock's raw fundamentals, then click 🧮 Calc. The embedded scoring skill (SKILL.md, shown below) turns them into Growth, Val. risk, AI exp. and Bal. sheet (1–10), the Score, the 4 Rule checks and the Low / Mid / High weights, and feeds the "Adjusted-Risk Own Stock" line in the comparison above. Leave a raw field blank to type that 1–10 score yourself.

Ticker

Company Industry category

Raw fundamentals (optional)

Revenue growth % (3y) P/S (x) Fwd P/E (x) Net debt / EBITDA (x) AI-linked revenue % Depends on hyperscaler capex Depreciation life stretched Circular vendor financing

Scores 1–10 (filled by Calc, or type your own)

Growth Val. risk AI exp. (0–10) Bal. sheet Price Note Add even if it fails the tier's rule screen

Fill in the form and click 🧮 Calc to preview the Score, Rules and Low / Mid / High weights.

In	Stock	Score	Growth	Val. risk	AI exp.	Bal. sheet	Rules	Low %	Mid %	High %	$	Price	Note	Edit

Embedded scoring skill · anti-bubble-stock-scoring (SKILL.md)

Grantham's 9 bubble diagnostics → how this portfolio responds

Limits and critical questions